Kenyan Won't Win, Why Watch TPF?

A Kenyan won't win TPF4. A participant from either Tanzania or debutant Southern Sudan will. 

Tusker Project Fame (TPF), a Reality TV show aired every Sunday on Citizen TV,  is more of a publicity platform by East Africa's Breweries Limited (EABL)to market their products than a social social responsibility initiative aimed at discovering and rewarding untapped talents.

After a period of seven weeks the participant who sings and performs exceptionally well and wades through the house politics with care and diligence is supposed to emerge the winner.

Past participants have been selected from four of East Africa's countries of Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda in which EABL has been either fully operational or has been keen on exploiting its market.

As a marketing strategy, EABL strives to maintain its current customers even as it appeases its potential ones by downplaying any perception that they may be biased towards or against a participant country. Any hint of bias,the Brewers know, can be counter-productive to their business goals.

Unfortunately, in their bid to cut across all the participating countries, the organizers of the show have left behind a trail of winning trend that speaks volumes. Though it has been affirmative at best it has been absurd at worst. This streak has at times been achieved at the expense of talent and brilliance.

Kenya won first, Uganda followed, and then Rwanda-then new entrants-won third.

However, most people would rather than miss an episode of this drama-riddled show expecting to see soap-opera-like drama unfold as they also feel the thrill of unpredictability.

While it is true fanatics of TPF may be entertained to Hemedi's plastic libido-display as he chases after every other funky girl in the house it would be foolhardy to expect the curtains of TPF to wind down in a similar fashion. Ultimately,  there is nothing really unpredictable about TPF.
 
Based on the winning trend it is apparent that a Kenyan, Rwandan, or Ugandan won't win TPF4.

Nothing explains this better than EABL's "pan-African expansion strategy" and the near boiling point battles it has been waging against the South African Breweries (SAB) for the control and dominance of the Eastern and Central African market.

Kenya is EABL's fortress, according to EABL's Group CEO Gerald Mahinda. It contributes about 70 percent of EABL's profits with beer accounting for 80% and spirits 11%.

EABL doesn't need to appease Kenya just as Raila Odinga doesn't need to campaign in Luo Nyanza. May be the the inclusion of Kenyans in the show since when Valerie Kimani won it in 2006 has been nothing but a formality.

Instead, EABL needs to cement its authority in the neighboring countries where SAB is giving it a run for its money. This is more so in the virgin markets of Burundi, DRC Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somali, and most important Southern Sudan.

EABL's war with SAB in Uganda has been intense, may be more than any other country. Especially after the latter announced plans to invest sh 1.2 billion in a malting plant to process locally grown barley. This intense competition must have prompted EABL to naively award Uganda's Esther Nabaasta Mugizi this coveted booty of Kshs 5 million, a recording label with South Africa’s Gallo Records and a host of other goodies.  . 

In TPF3,  Rwanda in their debut appearance in the show, produced the winner. Soft-spoken, can't-harm a fly Alpha Rwiraagira from Rwanda won Tusker Project3. This was timely and strategical as it came at a time when EABL were about to make inroads in Rwanda.

This leaves Tanzania and Southern Sudan as the only countries to have participated in the show but never won. And with EABL having been granted the green light to own a good part of Serengeti Breweries and thus strengthening their hold on the Tanzanian market it should come as a surprised if the grand prize went to Southern Sudan.

Tanzanians would, of course, cry foul as they have been consistent right from the start when this show kicked off less than four years ago.

Any way, if recent developments are anything to go by, TPF4 must have been won the moment the auditions in Southern Sudan were completed.

EABL is keen on setting up a plant in Southern Sudan. It is reported that the company plans to build a 700, 000 hectoliter plant in Southern Sudan. This comes after SABMiller front-run them by opening a 2.9 billion plant Juba.

Said  Mahinda, "I can tell you that we are seriously setting up a plant there and everything is in the initial stages." It might as well be that giving the Sudanese the final laugh in TPF4 is part of the initial stages.

One thing is certain though: Kenya won't win the fourth Tusker Project Fame Contest and I won't be watching it.